Every fantasy manager goes into the season with certain expectations of certain players. These expectations are what drives us to draft or avoid these players.
Alas, those expectations don’t always pan out the way we expect. Often, we find ourselves suddenly shifting, we now have new expectations. Then, the unexpected happens and we begin to see signs that our original expectations might become what we expect again.
Sometimes, this Boomerang Shift is the byproduct of impatience or overreaction to early data. Other times, there are tangible reasons for a shift away, then back to a particular projection.
And without further ado, let’s introduce today’s Madman topic: Texans running back Devin Singletary. When Houston added this former Bills backfield committee member in the offseason, we saw it as a sign that Dameon Pierce’s rookie-season run as the feature back could be in jeopardy.
Pierce had a fine but not eye-popping first season. Once he took over the backfield in Week 3, he was the RB15 from that point through Week 14, when he was lost for the season with an ankle injury.
He still finished RB27 — which isn’t terrible for an undrafted fantasy asset who played just 14 games. But it wasn’t like he put a firm stamp on the job, so when the team added Singletary, a committee was the logical expectation.
Yet, it hasn’t really been a committee. Pierce has more than 68 percent of running back carries this season, with Singletary at just 27 percent. And for some of us, that expected committee was the gateway that would allow Singletary to eventually claim the larger role.
After all, we felt Singletary was primed for bigger numbers in an offense where his skills weren’t so vastly overshadowed by superior talent elsewhere on the roster. We expect him to get more opportunities on a team with fewer weapons, and in doing so, perform his way to the forefront.
Alas, the climate we needed for our original expectation to manifest was developing as expected. So we changed our expectation. We began thinking of Singletary as a deep bench option, a weak handcuff to a weak running game anchored by Pierce or outright droppable.
Until … It seems like ages ago when Week 6 happened, but it was just a couple of week ago. Really, it was. that is how counting and time works. But in Week 6, Singletary finally got some attention, equally Pierce in overall touches and posting much better efficiency.
So now that climate we expected earlier seems to have arrived, allowing us to dive back into our original expectation, which is that Singletary will emerge the leader of a committee in Houston.
When facing a defense as generous as the Panthers — second-worst in the league vs. RBs, and closer to last-place Denver than 30th-ranked Packers — we like any RB who is going to get a decent amount of touches.
The Madman is breaking out his boomerang this week and throwing the once-forgotten Singletary back into the mix of RB options.
Big weeks
Jeff Wilson Jr. RB, Dolphins, vs. Patriots (FanDuel $5,800/DraftKings $4,500)
Was used sparingly last week in his return to action (ribs/finger). Expect him to have a larger role backing up Raheem Mostert, pushing Salvon Ahmed more to the background. Plus, Mostert is dealing with an ankle issue, which could limit his work.
Brian Robinson Jr. Commanders, RB, vs. Eagles (FD $6,100/DK $5,400)
Yes, the Eagles are the toughest defense vs. fantasy running backs, but Robinson’s involvement in the passing game helps sidestep that issue, and makes him relatively protected from negative gameflow. Truth: He ranks 12th among RBs this season in PPR, so he qualifies as an RB1.
DeVonta Smith WR, Eagles, at Commanders (FD $6,900/DK $6,700)
Lot of fantasy managers sweating a flurry of single-digit outings by Smith. We think this is a week where he pops off. A.J. Brown is on an unsustainable run, so spreading the wealth has to come at some point, and Washington has been torched by struggling passing attacks recently (Bears and Falcons).
Christian Kirk WR, Jaguars, at Steelers (FD $7,000/DK $5,900)
He is the team’s leading fantasy wide receiver, even if he technically is the No. 2. The Steelers ranked 30th vs. opposing WRs, and have yielded a 15.8 PPR average vs. secondary WRs this season.
Betting on the NFL?
Small weaks
Josh Jacobs RB, Raiders, at Lions (FD $7,200/DK $7,100)
It has been a rough season for Jacobs so far, and the Lions likely won’t offer a soft landing spot. Detroit is the third-stingiest vs. fantasy RBs, and they’ll be angry after a drubbing in Baltimore last week.
Javonte Williams RB, Broncos, vs. Chiefs (FD $6,000/DK $5,200)
Just one game this season with double-digit PPR output — including just 7.2 in Week 6 vs. the Chiefs. Hasn’t shown the same explosiveness yet since returning from last season’s knee injury.
Miles Sanders RB, Panthers, vs. Texans (FD $6,300/DK $4,900)
Is making his return from a shoulder injury, but he wasn’t producing well before the injury. Chuba Hubbard has shown he can perform at the same or even slightly better level.
Tyjae Spears RB, Titans, vs. Falcons (FD $4,900/DK $4,700)
Spears has averaged more than a yard more per carry this season than bellcow Derrick Henry. A shift to more equal share could be ahead, a stiff Falcons run defense isn’t likely to yield playable fantasy numbers to Spears this week.
Daily Duel
Drew Loftis and Jarad Wilk submit dueling rosters into a DFS contest:
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (13 games)
Type: $9 tourney
Top prize: $250K
Pot: $1.3M
Drew’s Crew
QB: C.J. Stroud — Hou (at Car) $7,400
RB: Alvin Kamara — NO (at Ind) $8,300
RB: Devin Singletary — Hou (at Car) $5,400
WR: DeVonta Smith — Phi (at Was) $6,900
WR: Nico Collins — Hou (at Car) $7,200
WR: Adam Thielen — Car (vs. Hou) $8,200
TE: Logan Thomas — Was (vs. Phi)
Flex: Isiah Pacheco — KC (at Den) $7,400
DEF: Colts — Ind (vs. NO) $3,800
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: C.J. Stroud — Hou (at Car) $7,400
RB: Alvin Kamara — NO (at Ind) $8,300
RB: Breece Hall — NYJ (at NYG) $7,200
WR: Josh Downs — Ind (vs. NO) $6,100
WR: A.J. Brown — Phi (at Was) $8,700
WR: Christian Watson — GB (vs. Min) $6,300
TE: Jake Ferguson — Dal (vs. LAR)
Flex: Nico Collins — Hou (at Car) $7,200
DEF: Falcons — Atl (at Ten) $3,900
For late changes to Daily Duel rosters, follow @NYPost_Loftis on X.
Season risked: $68
Season’s winnings: Drew $58, Jarad $9
NEWS CREDIT
