It doesn’t get much better for soccer fans than Friday afternoon.
Four football powerhouses will be in action with places in the Euro 2024 semifinals on the line.
Better yet is that the oddsmakers have hung prices to suggest that both Germany vs. Spain and Portugal vs. France will be hard to predict.
Spain is the slightest of favorites to advance to the semifinals at -113, while France is -148 to get past Cristiano Ronaldo and Co.
Let’s dive into Friday’s heavyweight clashes and see if we can’t pick out a couple of bets:
Germany vs. Spain (noon ET)
You could make a strong argument that this is a contest between the two best teams remaining in the tournament.
Neither Germany nor Spain have put much of a foot wrong through their first four matches and in a just world they’d be on a collision course to meet in the final, but that’s not how these tournaments work.
So, instead, we’ll have to settle for Spain vs. Germany in the quarterfinals at MHPArena in Stuttgart. Oh well.
As the odds suggest, you really have to split hairs in breaking down this match. It’s Goliath vs. Goliath.
In terms of results, no team has had a better start to Euro 2024 than Spain. La Furia Roja went 3-0-0 without conceding a goal in a group that featured Italy, Croatia and Albania, then walloped Georgia, 4-1, in the Round of 16. No team has created more expected goals, big scoring chances or put more shots on target than Spain so far.
It’s quite the tournament résumé, but Germany is right there with them.
The hosts have scored 10 goals and conceded just two and were quite impressive in a tricky match with Denmark in the Round of 16. Die Mannschaft won the match, 2-0, and were dangerous going forward all night with 15 shots, five big scoring chances and 2.6 expected goals created.
On paper, you’d say this match has all the makings of a back-and-forth classic, but oftentimes when teams like this meet it devolves into a bit of a stalemate.
Both Spain and Germany are so good with and without the ball, that it’s hard to see this turning into a barn burner. Not only do I think the draw is worth a bet, but you can also take a shot on it going all the way to penalties. Buckle up.
Recommendation: Game to end in penalties (+450, FanDuel)
Portugal vs. France (3 p.m. ET)
Now feels like the time to get in on Portugal.
That may sound a bit crazy since the Navigators lost to Georgia, 2-0, in their last match of the group stage and then followed that up with an uninspiring nil-nil against Slovenia (Portugal would go onto win in a shootout), but one of the best practices in betting is to buy low and this seems like the right time to jump in on a team that was among the favorites to lift the trophy not too long ago.
And while Portugal’s struggles in front of goal are worrisome, they have done a good job of getting quality looks. The Navigators have created the third-most big scoring chances in the tournament (12) but have squandered nine of them.
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France, meanwhile, are offering very little going forward. Les Bleus have scored just three goals in four matches and only one of them came from open play. And that goal took a double-deflection on the way into the onion bag.
Portugal’s struggles are sucking up much of the oxygen in this matchup, but France hasn’t been much better. I like a punt on Portugal to not only win this match, but go all the way.
Recommendation: Portugal to win Euro 2024 (+850, DraftKings)
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