A pair of AL East powerhouses begin an important three-game series Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
The Orioles took three out of four from the Yankees in April at Camden Yards but still enter this series 1 ¹/₂ games back in the division race.
FanGraphs suggests there is already a 99.7 percent chance the division will be won by one of these two teams, and they are also consensus betting favorites to win the AL pennant.
The Orioles are 47-24 despite several key pitchers missing significant time, including Felix Bautista, Dean Kremer, John Means and Tyler Wells.
Kremer is now nearing a return to action, but his reinstatement into the rotation will only fill the void left by Kyle Bradish (UCL sprain).
Baltimore is expected to start Albert Suarez (1.61 ERA, 44 ²/₃ innings pitched), Cade Povich (4.77 ERA, 11 ¹/₃ IP) and Cole Irvin (3.03 ERA, 68 ¹/₃ IP) in this series.
The Yankees will receive a huge boost this week as Gerrit Cole is set to return.
Aaron Boone announced his ace will start Wednesday, while Nestor Cortes (3.59 ERA, 87 ²/₃ IP) and Luis Gil (2.03 ERA, 80 IP) are slated to get Games 1 and 3, respectively.
FanGraphs projects the Orioles will win the division 33.2 percent of the time, while DraftKings’ odds suggest they will win the division 35.1 percent of the time.
As a result, there doesn’t appear to be much-betting value backing either team in the division, particularly as the Orioles’ current pitching situation is a little concerning.
The Orioles are priced at +230 to be the No. 1 seed in the AL, which is my favorite futures bet involving these two sides. It seems unlikely the Yankees will slow down much from their torrid start.
If the Orioles do find a way to win the AL, chances are it will be because they brought in some meaningful reinforcements at the trade deadline.
The Post’s Jon Heyman reported last week that Baltimore is showing interest in Marlins closer Tanner Scott.
The Orioles should have a slightly better chance of stealing Game 1 than oddsmakers suggest, as Cortes has been in lesser form entering this matchup, and Baltimore hitters match up well against him.
Cortes has pitched to a 4.50 ERA over his last four outings, with a WHIP of 1.27. His hard-hit rate has spiked to 46 percent in those matchups and he has struck out only 19 percent of batters faced.
While Cortes has been incredible at Yankee Stadium, the Orioles have been wearing out lefties.
Suarez has an ERA of 1.40 since being converted to a starting role. He owns a 3.42 xERA and a 4.25 xFIP entering this matchup.
Suarez will get his toughest test yet Tuesday, as the Yankees have been the best offense in the league against right-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 125 and a .450 slug rate.
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In this specific matchup, the Orioles’ offense can be power-rated comparably to the Yankees given the way they have crushed left-handed pitching. Cortes’ form is tailing off and this is probably not the matchup for him to get right.
The Orioles are a solid bet as an underdog in the series opener. And if you’re looking toward their futures, taking them to finish with the AL’s No. 1 seed is a worthy bet at their current odds.
Best Bets: Orioles moneyline Game 1 (+123, BetRivers) | Orioles No. 1 seed AL (+230, DraftKings)
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