When soldiers overthrew Gabon’s President Ali Bongo two weeks ago, it was the eighth coup in three years in Western and Central Africa.
For African watchers of a certain age, it probably felt like the 1960s-1980s all over again — when conflict and coups were almost standard practice across the continent.
But for the last 30 years, a semblance of political stability has become the norm, ushering in a period of unprecedented economic growth — along with optimistic talk about “Africa rising.”
Despite the rosy headlines, the situation in Africa has always remained precarious.
The global pandemic devastated local economies and set the scene for the political upheaval now unfolding — even in countries with strong democratic traditions such as Senegal and Kenya.
What happens in Africa matters to the rest of the world. But it’s of special import to Western countries, particularly the United States.
From security and terrorism to economic development and migration, what happens in Africa rarely stays in Africa – especially as the continent falls under the influence of China and more recently, Russia.
The U.S. has invested heavily in military training and security partnerships across Africa as terrorist organizations like al Qaeda and the Islamic State expand across the Sahel.
The goal has been as much to defeat the militias as well as prevent copy-cats from rising alongside them.
The ongoing aid has helped Washington retain a semblance of respect in much of Africa, unlike France many of whose former colonies are now convulsing in chaos.
Indeed, every one of the recent coup nations — Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, and Gabon — was once under French control.
And their new military leaders have made clear that decades of meddling from Paris led to the current upheaval.
The American position on coups is resolute.
They are anti-democratic and we don’t like them.
In fact, there is an act of Congress — Section 7008 – which states that the U.S. will not support any country where a democratically-elected government has been ousted by the military.
Countries like those across West Africa.
But so far President Biden’s State Department has refused to describe the July 26th coup in Niger as a coup.
Instead, Washington is trying to work with the military junta via diplomatic envoys and a new ambassador. Niger matters to the US – mostly because of its strategic location at the front lines of Islamist terror.
“The United States does not want to abandon Nigeriens that we’ve partnered with and that we’ve trained with over many years,” a Pentagon official said last month.
But Washington’s low-volume approach in Africa is creating something of a rift between the US and its oldest ally, France.
And It’s not just Paris that’s displeased, some on Capitol Hill also believe Biden’s policies lack muscle.
“We’ve had a lot of soaring rhetoric about being Africa’s partner, but when it comes to implementing policy it’s a different ballgame,” one Republican Hill staffer told me in frustration at the reluctance by the Biden team to call Niger’s situation a coup.
The worry from many folks in Washington is that Biden’s hesitation will only encourage additional African military leaders to embark on their own paths toward regime change.
If their counterparts in Niger can do it without Western consequences, the thinking goes, why can’t we?
The threats here — both short- and long-term— are not just about American security.
They’re also about global demographics.
By 2050, one in four people on the planet will be African, which will also be home to roughly one-third of the world’s working-age population.
The U.S. can’t afford to sit by and watch rivals like China and Russia build their influence while we’re shut out.
Russia has been particularly potent in sowing discord across Africa.
Led by the infamous Wagner Group, they’re using social media to spread anti-Western messaging, most notably against France, as recently detailed in The New York Times.
Their core claims are particularly divisive: That elected African governments are doing the bidding of Western powers while millions of frustrated young Africans seek jobs that don’t exist.
But the Russians don’t have jobs to offer Africans either.
Instead, Wagner has done little more than extract African minerals and kill African civilians.
Lots of them.
In Mali, for instance, Wagner mercenaries were brought in to defend citizens against terrorists; instead, they slaughtered upwards of 500 civilians in just one brutal attack in May.
There have been similar reports in the Central African Republic.
Despite the ongoing uncertainty, now is the time for Washington to engage with the continent beyond basic military or developmental aid.
China is already there – having displaced the US as Africa’s largest trading partner way back in 2009 and investing upwards of $300 billion in the following years.
True, much of this funding comes with serious strings that erode environmental and democratic standards.
But what else can Africa do?
The US has not offered much better.
As Africa settles into its “new normal,” additional coups might still be forthcoming. After all, Gabon is hardly the only nation where one family, in this case, the Bongos, ruled for decades and treated the national treasury like their personal bank accounts.
Although none were quite as splashy as the Bongos – who famously flew in celebs like Michael Jackson to entertain their elite – plenty of African rulers have also overstayed their welcomes.
If and when they’re shown the door, here’s hoping the Oval Office will finally respond as decisively.
Yinka Adegoke is editor of Semafor Africa.
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